Chaosophist (kay-os-o-fist)

My personal math has the Travel Startup success rate at lower than 1/2 of 1%.

I’m calculating over 1000 travel startups in the last decade with less than 50 ‘successful’ startups.

The rate for Big Time success is even lower maybe 1/10 of 1%

 

It may be too early to tell, but I essentially agree with this post on Pando Daily from a few months ago.  Travel was one of the early candidates for a market that could be disrupted by the creation of the Internet.  There are several very profitable companies that have fundamentally monopolized the space.  In the US Market, there is Expedia (created by Microsoft in partnership with GDS’s) 1996.
Orbitz.com (created by United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines & Northwest Airlines in 1999).  Two of Orbitz’s founding creators no longer exist.   Travelocity.com  was created by Sabre (a GDS) which was wholly owned by American Airlines at the time.  Priceline.com was founded by Walker Digital (a very successful company with over $300M in revenues in 1998).  
So of the big 4 Online Travel Agencies in the US, none  represents what we typcially consider a startup, and 2 were actuall existing players in the market just shifting from offline to online.

If you look at the last decade, there a few very successful companies but very few that started in a dorm room.  Kayak was started by Paul English (an exec at Intuit) and Steve Hafner who was part of the original Orbitz team.  They started with a ton of funding and industry experience.

ITA Software was essentially a true startup.  It slogged along in the “Might Make it” status for 15 years before getting snatched up by Google.  Granted they had > $100M in revenues and > $200M in funding for many of their final years, but with a limited supplier chain and colossal failures in attempting to scale from Shopping Engine to PSS provider there was never going to be any future other than an acquisition for ITA.  Still an $800M acquisiton deal is clearly a SUCCESS.

 

Tripadvisor.com (11 years since founding) certainly meets the criteria.

As does Tripit.com which was acquried for $120M by Concur.

Farecompare has done very well (founded by Rick Seaney & Graeme Wallace from work they did at Hotels.com)

There’s also Farecast (founded by Oren Etzioni) purchased by Bing.

Flightcaster (Evan Konweiser, ex-kayak staff member) was purchased by NextJump.  I’m not sure NextJump is successful, but I guess I count this as a good exit.

Portland based Flightstats.com (a Datalex spin-out) seems to be doing quite well.

More recently there is Gogobot (too soon to tell whether it will last, but it has strong user growth)

And of course there is star-studded Hipmunk.com

 

Sidestep and Swoodo, both acquired by Kayak can probably also be considered true startups that succeeded by getting acquired. ($200M for Sidestep, unknown for Swoodo).  But now we’re venturing outside the US Market where there are a few other notables:

 Cheapflights.com (founded in 1996)

 Skyscanner (11 years in the making, started on the backs of 3 guys, 2 of whom kept their fulltime jobs for a while)

Danish born Momondo, (6 years old),

Maybe you can count Datalex (founded in 1985) but they don’t really fit the criteria of a start-up

There are many more notables like ClearTrip.com from India, but the point I’m trying to get it is this:

In just 2010-2011 Tnooz lists in excess of 300 startups in the travel space, only Gogobot and Hipmunk from that era are surviving at any significant level of success.

The era of the Travel startup may be over.  The cost of creating a startup in other areas is just too low, and trying to disrupt the travel space without serious connections and money is seeming less and less likely.  I’m not sure if developers will ever stop trying to tackle this space, but it’s certainly beginning to seem less and less likely that they will succeed.

Want to mention some other companies that you think qualify as ‘successful’ travel startups?  Send me a note or comment and I’ll update my post. 

 

I saw this on Mashable.com  but the original source was AllmandLaw.com 

I’m always astonished by the articles that discuss startup failures.  There are many definitions, but in the tech community.  If you’re not fully funded or have overwhelming user acquisition momentum within the 1st 12 months, you probably fall in the FAILED category.  This one doesn’t attempt to cover the whole 90% statistic, but looks at a few side by side cases.  Worth looking at.

 

So, I’m 40. That’s not particularly old. But I am fully an adult. I have a 21 year old stepson, and 11 year old daughter, a wife, I used to have a mortgage and I have life and car insurance etc.
Young Entrepeneurs constantly portray the mindset of older folks (adults) as having abandoned their dreams.

My take on it is that it comes down to your perspective of the future. As you age, the future becomes less abstract. It arrives, as it were, as it is. In the future you could have been the next Hemingway, except you’re not. You’re a 40 yr old serial entrepreneurial technologist with 2 kids.

In the future you could have invented Instagram and earned a billion in shaky Facebook stock. But you’re not. You still keep track of your hours and you usually invoice some one for Travel expenses and you pay attention to when the reimbursement check is scheduled to come.

So being an adult is about abandoning yor dreams. dreams just have shorter shelf life. There isn’t an opportunity to wait 5 years to be the next you. It’s today.

Dreams cost more because they last less long. And they mature into market value sooner. If I dream of being In band at 42. I pretty much need to learn to play guitar today. If I dream of running a marathon. I need to enter a 5k run for next month. If I dream of owning a home, I need to put away 15% of my next check towards a down payment.

So adults haven’t abandoned their dreams, they just have to work harder to have a dream, because tomorrow is today and dreams don’t come cheap. They live or die on what you did this morning.

 So, Mountain Lion upgrade generally went fine, but had some real problems with my MAMP stack (Mac, Apache, Mysql, Php).  I program in a lot of languages in and keeping my stacks working with current development machine is usually no problem, but I ran into about 3 hours of confusion with Mac Mountain Lion and Apache.

Thanks to Neil Gee and this very idiot proof walk thru, I got it fixed up in a few minutes once I started looking for help.  http://coolestguyplanettech.com/downtown/install-and-configure-apache-mysql-p…

photo via

http://www.cultofmac.com/146957/mountain-lion-kills-os-x-support-for-a-number…

This is in response to a recent post by OM Malik

http://om.co/2012/03/20/entrepreneur-lesson-1-from-mark-pincus-stay-with-it/

Basically it’s that Stick With It advice you hear so often.  I usually agree with most of his insights but this one just rubbed me the wrong way.

FACT => Most startups fail
CONJECTURE => Many go down in flames with debt, unpaid salaries, legal liabilities, broken promises, divorces, friendships ended etc

CONCLUSION => Most startups fail too late.

In my experience startup Entrepeneurs have by definition already got the stick with it gene. They wouldn’t be doing a startup of they didn’t. In fact I would say too many of them have a delusional sense that of they just keep trying to hang on, somehow it will all work out allright.

In fact the best piece of advice I can give is this: When you find yourself with a shovel, deep in a hole, STOP DIGGING.

Practically what this means is that it’s better to retreat when the writing is CLEARLY on the wall, regroup, maybe take a temp job, and come at it again a bit later when you’ve digested what went wrong how your luck worked against you.

So stick with it by all means, but don’t believe the fantasy that if you stick with something that isn’t working, all you need is persaverence.

David with the Head of Goliath by Flemish Painter Jacob van Oost the Elder

 

My brother Val just recommended this video to me to cheer me up. It worked.

Thanks Val.